Warburg Blog

I originally wrote this note,in the winter of 2008,and posted it on Facebook.I try to remind people often ,especially as we head into winter months.

Just a quick note- for those of us who live in NYC- and are not aware-you can call 311 to be transferred to the division of homeless services. There is a homeless outreach program,and if you give them a general description and geographic location of the homeless person(s) in question-they will dispatch them to that location,where they will try to convince them to go to a shelter,and also have food provisions .

I knew this,but had forgotten,and remembered today.While having lunch this afternoon ,we saw a homeless man who was barely clothed (just a sweatshirt,no pants,no shoes) wandering midtown pandhandling. We called 311,it took a little bit of time to get through to the operator.We described the person,and it was wonderful to hear-that they already knew who it was,and had dispatched the van to the general location to find him. It was great to know,that people still care for their fellow human beings.

As we go head first into these very cold and frigid winter months,let us be especially thankful that we have warm abodes-and remember those who don’t- and please remember that 311 can be used for this purpose- please tell all of your friends,your families,your coworkers about this-let’s help each other help others.

via yournycrealestateresource.com

In recent weeks a number of Warburg agents have found themselves in competitive bidding situations. This phenomenon is increasing as the New York market continues to firm up, but the ground rules are quite different from what they were four years ago. In those unbridled days of 2006 and 2007 every asking price was simply a floor from which the bidding spiraled to dizzying heights. Today’s buyer is far more sober and conscientious, and today’s seller more realistic. Here are some facts and guidelines about the new art of competitive bidding:

* More often than not, today’s asking price is the ceiling for the bidding, not the floor. While some very well priced properties do still exceed their asking prices, it is the exception rather than the rule. Mostly the deal in a competitive situation is struck just below, at, or very slightly over the price.

* The Internet and a change in the law have both contributed to much savvier buyers. Websites like StreetEasy.com have made it easy for buyers to do their own research on comparable sales, so they can easily ascertain the prices for recent sales in the building and the neighborhood. And since co-op sales became a matter of public record, this isn’t true merely for condos and townhouses. A better informed buyer means a price which necessarily has a relationship to other similar  recent transactions.

* Spending a lot is no longer in fashion. As I have noted in these blogs before, my wife always comments that the world divides into two types: those who brag about how much they spent, and those who brag about how little. Given the ongoing fragile state of the economy, nobody much wants to be in Category 1.  Every buyer we talk to these days is focused on value. Now, different people have different ideas about where value is found and how to quantify it; that is what makes a market, especially in something as personal as a residential real estate purchase.  But, lacking the blind optimism of five years ago that real estate will go up 20% every year, buyers are cautious.

* In this environment, most buyers bid a little low to start (although not the 20-30% below asking price which we were seeing 18 months ago). And then they tend to come up slowly and deliberately. Competitive bidding situations are far less likely today to arise during the first week a property is available. Rather, the situation evolves over a number of weeks as buyers gradually commit to a property.

* Co-op sellers are more attentive than ever to which buyer is the best Board candidate. In the wake of the financial troubles of the recent past,  Boards have become more, not less, vigilant. Frequently the highest offer is NOT the best offer in a co-op sale. Board qualifications can often render the second place candidate the appropriate winner.

* Savvy sellers are pressing to get contracts signed ASAP. The 2010 market has been plagued by buyer’s remorse. Especially with competitive bidding , buyers are more likely than ever to have second thoughts once they have won the day. If they win they can feel “played”, or as if they have overpaid. It is crucial for the seller’s agent to make sure he has the building financial statements, approval requirements, and all other necessary information at his fingertips so the process moves seamlessly forward once an offer is accepted.

Competitive bidding is a flash point around which we in the industry can observe the profound changes which have taken place in the past couple of years. Everyone is more cautious, more data driven, more intent on getting value for their dollar.  As agents, it is our job to provide trustworthy expert advice and support. As a consumer, if you aren’t receiving that you aren’t getting your money’s worth.

Here’s a preview of my Manhattan Market Watch column to appear in the January issue of Mann Report.  Thanks for reading!

After a major downturn in Manhattan’s real estate market, we turned the corner and regained our footing during 2010.  We managed to repair the imbalance wrought in the tumultuous aftermath of Lehman’s collapse.  In less than two years, we emerged from the crisis, and we look forward to a continued gradual recovery.  Collective wisdom posits this next year of 2011 as a period to secure a firm foundation from which we will grow incrementally.    

 

I see 2011 as a time to buy Manhattan properties at still depressed prices.  By far, a real estate purchase in our borough ranks as the greatest investment.  Where you live is still the best place to park your money.  It’s insightful to compare stats for the end of the third quarter of 2000 to the end of the third quarter of 2010.  In this decade, consider the following: 

 

-        the Dow is up 7.5% —10,650 vs. 11,407

-        the S & P is down 15% —1,436 vs. 1,223

-        the NASDAQ is down 30%—3,672 vs. 2,580

-        Manhattan real estate is up 40%

 

Market timing yields 20:20 vision in hindsight only.  From 2000 through 2006, with successive years of rapidly escalating prices, who could have forecast 2007 would become the peak of the market from which we would fall precipitously to a trough in mid 2009?

 

For much of 2010, media talk about foreclosures and short sales around the country created false expectations among our buyers, causing a lethargy and ambivalence in decision making.  In point of fact, foreclosures in Manhattan have been minimal, and there’s no guarantee that a short sale which is fraught with seemingly endless difficulties will actually close.

 

Though transaction volume was up considerably in 2010 from 2009, for the most part buyers were taking their sweet time to make purchasing decisions.  They might make an offer one day, and then you didn’t hear from them for weeks if at all.  Except for isolated instances of competitive bidding, the market lacked urgency, as buyers sat on their bids waiting for new inventory to surface and hoping for further price erosion which didn’t come.  In today’s market, it’s the sellers who are doing most of the compromising. 

 

Make Way for the Buyers

 

The resurgence of the market’s over-$10-million high end in the 2^nd half of 2010, after nearly two years of inactivity, demonstrates the return of buyer confidence.  With dozens of jaw dropping, record breaking closings in all areas of the city, Manhattan’s top sector has been particularly busy spreading confidence through all market segments. 

 

For Europeans, New York real estate provides more than shelter.  As a safe haven from European debt worries, foreign investors have been returning to the Manhattan market.  Beginning with Greece in the spring, then Ireland, Portugal and most recently Spain, debt woes in the sovereign states are worsening and threatening the euro.  These rippling waves of global instability will keep Manhattan prices flat for the near term at least. 

 

With interest rates at historic lows, there’s never been a better time to borrow.  Stringent Fannie Mae guidelines wreaked havoc on our market in 2009.  Sari Rosenberg, Managing Director at The Manhattan Mortgage Company, characterized 2009 as “traumatizing” but sees the lending industry in far better shape today, pointing to “many lenders who are able to provide loans above the Fannie Mae limit of $729,750 for those who can prove they qualify.”  Last September, Congress extended the loan limit through 2011 in New York and other high cost markets.  Without the change, the maximum government-backed mortgage would have fallen to about $625,000.  Before 2008, the limit was $417,000 which is the level for most of the nation.

 

Opportunities abound for buyers today in both the resale and new development condo markets; during the downturn, as the latter struggled, many closed sales offices which have only recently re-opened.

 

Now is decidedly the time to collaborate with your broker to identify the right property for your specific needs.  With new online tools available for the trade and the public, buyers and brokers can work in partnership to search inventory.  At UrbanDigs.com, Noah Rosenblatt offers statistics on the pace of Contracts Signed in real time demonstrating actual buyer demand in an ever changing marketplace.  Coming soon will be a break out by category of Contracts Signed by co-ops, condos and townhouses.  Over at Streeteasy.com, a new Folders feature provides “a collaborative environment” to help users organize searches and communicate with each other. 

 

Although the economic recovery remains stalled with unemployment as the impediment that won’t go away, our market continues to buck national downward trends.  Manhattan is still one of the super cities of the world.  In 2011, savvy buyers will be out shopping with their brokers in increasing numbers, taking advantage of deep discounts and reaping the benefits of living in their brick and mortar investments.

 

 

The President of our firm, Fred Peters, asked this week in his blog “What are YOU thankful for?”  I pause, breathe and think I have many things to be thankful for.  I’m a homeowner for the first time in my 30 year career in real estate. I have an amazing job and work for an incredible man, partnered with a fabulous management  team who want only the best for our agents.  Oh and of course the office I go to five days a week in the heart of Tribeca, where I am fortunate to work with a talented group of agents, who not only have the utmost respect for one another, but also for this business we call real estate.  I am truly proud of each and every one of them and wish them continued success always. And I have recently been appointed Co-chair of the Real Estate Board of New York’s Downtown Committee. 

 

I take a tremendous amount of pride in knowing I have helped to cultivate and nurture our relationships in the Tribeca community, from producing our Annual Halloween Event for the kids in our neighborhood (see attached photo), to our art venues with local artists from the downtown community in our offices with a rotation every quarter along with the students of PS150 who contribute their artwork for our window displays.

I am reminded of how blessed we are to be working in such a lovely part of New York City, that is also home to many of our agents. I have an incredible family and beautiful friends and as I continue to deepen my yoga and meditation practice I am reminded of the limitless possibilities life and this fabulous city have to offer.

 

“Let us remember that, as much has been given us, much will be expected from us, and that true homage comes from the heart as well as from the lips, and shows itself in deeds.”

Theodore Roosevelt

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

 

FUN THINGS TO DO IN NEW YORK CITY THIS HOLIDAY SEASON 2010

Having spent so many wonderful holiday seasons in New York City, we felt we’d share some of our favorite traditions and activities.  We hope the attached serves as a useful guide to help you and your family navigate your way through some of New York’s great sights and attractions this season.  

Christine Miller Martin & Hunter Hulshizer, Warburg Realty Partnership          

 

Christmas Holiday Shows and Events in New York City

Radio City Christmas Spectacular

The Rockettes kick up their heels this year to a fresh routine of The Twelve Days of Christmas and audience members get the full effect with a flying LED screen. (Radio City Music Hall, 1260 6th Avenue, New York, NY 10020; Now – December 30, 2010; $45 – $250) www.radiocitychristmas.com  866-858-0007.

Winter’s Eve at Lincoln Square

Sidewalks come alive with street performances by musicians, jugglers, stilt walkers and more. November 29, 2010 at 5:30pm.  The celebration begins with a neighborhood tree lighting ceremony at Dante Park – Broadway and 63^rd Street.  Festivities continue along Broadway from Time Warner Center to 68^th Street.  November 29, 2010 at 5:30pm.   www.winterseve.org  212-581-3774                                                                              

The Nutcracker

Angels, soldiers, and sugarplum fairies prance across the Lincoln Center stage in a show that delights children and adults alike.
(New York State Theater, Columbus Avenue & 63rd Street, Lincoln Center, New York, NY 10023; November 26 – January 2, 2011.  For tickets: www.nycballet.com/nutcracker/nutcracker.html

Handel’s Messiah

Trinity Church Wall Street – The perennial favorite that always sells out, this incredibly rich oratorio features an elaborate mix of chorus, soloists, and orchestra that must be heard live … and what better place than Trinity Church where it received its New World premiere in 1770.  Conductor:  Julian Wachner.  With the Trinity Baroque Orchestra, Robert Mealy, concertmaster.  Tickets can be purchased online or at the Trinity Gift Shop, inside Trinity Church.   Sunday, December 12, 2010 from 3pm to 5pm.  74 Trinity Place.  212-602-0800.  http://www.trinitywallstreet.org/calendar/2010/12/13/messiah-george-frideric-handel/

 

Grand Central Terminal’s Kaleidoscope Light Show

See Grand Central in a whole new light!  An all new Kaleidoscope show will grace the walls of New York’s most famous historic landmark again this year.  Come see what is becoming one of the most popular holiday shows in the city.  Grand Central Terminal, 15 Vanderbilt Ave at 42nd St., New York, NY 10017; December 1, 2010 – January 1, 2011 .  Shows run every half hour from 11am to 9pm daily.  Free to the public.  www.grandcentralterminal.com.

 

Holiday Shops and Activities in NYC

The Holiday Shops at Bryant Park – November 5, 2010 – January 2, 2011.  Open daily, the over 100 boutique-style shops and specialty food stores from around the world offer exquisite and distinctive apparel, jewelry, decorative goods, imported and local food, and much more.  For a complete list of vendors, an insider’s guide to The Holiday Shops and more, please visit www.theholidayshopsatbryantpark.com or call 212-661-6640.

Holiday Shopping in Union Square – One of Manhattan’s most popular Holiday Markets, The Holiday Market in Union Square offers shoppers a wide variety of items which include handcrafted jewelry, fine art, clothes, handmade ornaments and toys.  The market will be open from November 19, 2010 to December 24, 2010 from 11am to 8pm daily.  Please note that it will be closed on Thanksgiving Day.  www.urbanspacenyc.com/union-square.

Grand Central Holiday Fair- (November 15th-December 24th, 2010; Grand Central Terminal; 87 E. 42nd St. at Park Ave.) Stop by Grand Central Terminal for a warm and festive holiday shopping spree. The annually held Holiday Fair offers fun and original gift ideas and a merry atmosphere.   Hours are 10am-8pm daily.  Closed Thanksgiving Day.

Holiday Market at Columbus Circle- Open December 1 to December 24, 2010, 59^th Street and 8^th Avenue.  10am to 8pm daily.  http://www.urbanspacenyc.com/columbus-circle/

The Holiday Gift Shops at St. Bartholomew’s – 2010 marks the 7^th year for the Holiday Gift Shops at St. Bart’s.  Open November 15 – December 24, 2010 from 8am to 8pm daily.  On Park Avenue at 50^th street.

Holiday Window Displays

Lord & Taylor Holiday Window Displays (424 Fifth Avenue at 38th Street)
Bergdorf Goodman Holiday Window Displays (Fifth Avenue and 57th Street)
Saks Fifth Avenue Holiday Window Displays (611 Fifth Avenue between 49^th and 50^th Street)
Barneys New York Christmas Window Displays (660 Madison Avenue at 61st St.)
Bloomingdale’s Christmas Window Displays (Lexington Avenue between 59th Street and 60th Street)
Macy’s Christmas Window Displays (Herald Square, between 34th and 35th on Broadway)

Most department stores run their holiday displays from mid-November to mid-January.

Not Just For Kids

The Museum of the City of New York 2010 Children’s Holiday Party- Arts, crafts, magic shows, a buffet supper and meeting with Santa Claus is enough to get any child in the holiday spirit. (Museum of the City of New York 1220 Fifth Avenue; Monday, December 13, from 3-6pm; visit http://www.mcny.org/public-programs/all/CHP2010.html  212-534-1672 

Ninth Annual Grand Central Holiday Train Show November 22, 2010-January 17, 2011; New York Transit Museum Gallery Annex; Grand Central Terminal, 42nd St.  between Vanderbilt & Lexington Avenues.
The New York Transit Museum Gallery at Grand Central Terminal is returning with its 9th annual Holiday Train Show which features a full train track with a fully functioning train and miniature New York City background. The vintage trains made by Lionel, American Flyer and Louis Marx & Company, which date as far back as the 1920s, will also be on display.  www.mta.info/mta/museum/whatsnew.htm

 

New York Botanical Garden  Holiday Train  Show

November 20, 2010 – January 9, 2011 – The New York Botanical Garden- Bronx River Parkway at Fordham Road.  The New York Botanical Garden’s Holiday Train Show is a beautiful scene of The Big Apple built entirely out of plants and natural material like seeds, bark and leaves. A few of the included landmarks are the Brooklyn Bridge and The Statue of Liberty constructed by Paul Busse. The miniature trains are also incredibly impressive works of art to view and run the familiar New York City Landscape.   www.nybg.org/hts

New York Zoos

Winter Fest at The Central Park Zoo – Enjoy the beauty of the Zoo at the best time of year – the winter holidays.  On Fridays and Saturdays in December, hours will be extended to 6:30 pm so you can stop by in the afternoon or after work for a stroll under the lights.  Visit cold weather creatures, enjoy family activities and Wildlife Theatre in the Zoo gallery, and watch the animals get gifted during holiday enrichment sessions.  The snow monkeys will forage from trees strung with tasty fruits, red pandas will unpack gift boxes brimming with treats, and polar bears will receive frozen fish-cicles. www.centralparkzoo.com/plan-your-trip/events-calendar/presents-to-the-animals.aspx

Also enjoy holiday shopping at the Zootique, take a family holiday photo, and treat yourself to cookies and cocoa in the café.  Activities take place from 2pm-6:30pm.  December 3-4, 2010; December 10-11, 2010; and December 17-18, 2010.

Hess Clydesdale Carriage Rides at The Bronx Zoo-

Weekends November 6 through December 19 & December 26-31, 2010.  Beloved Clydesdale horses Ranger, Jesse, and Monty will take guests on festive wagon rides around the zoo.  Other features will include a petting zoo, ice carvings and puppets.   Saturdays and Sundays throughout the holiday season.  Special winter activities continue in December.   $5 per person for ages 3 and up.   http://www.bronxzoo.com/plan-your-trip/events-calendar/horse-drawn-carriage-rides.aspx

Hotels, Museums, Trees and Lights

Carolers in the Lobby of The Carlyle Hotel

Holiday Victorian-style carolers will bring memories to your heart.  Be serenaded by your favorite holiday melodies in The Carlyle’s famed lobby.  On December 22^nd and 23^rd, 2010, carolers will perform from 5:30-7:30pm.  On Christmas Eve, enjoy the Victorian Vocal Quartet from 5pm-9pm and on Christmas Day from noon-2pm and again from 5pm-7pm. 

Also stop by to enjoy Madeline Tea at The Carlyle’s famous Bemelmans Bar.  Madeline Tea is a delightfully playful afternoon for children and parents alike.  Guests can listen and sing along to tunes from the Madeline Song Book with Tina de Varon while dining on Madeline’s Children’s Buffet, afternoon tea, or an a la carte menu for adults.  Every Saturday with seatings at 10am and 12:30pm.  Don’t forget to check out the gingerbread house on display in The Gallery.  It’s an endless source of temptation for both young and the young at heart.  Located at 35 East 76^th Street. www.thecarlyle.com  212-744-1600

Victorian Holiday Lighting (At the Charles A. Dana Discovery Center – Inside the Park on 110^th St between 5^th and Lenox Aves)  - Sunday, December 5, 2010  - 3:00pm to 5:00pm.  Celebrate the season in Manhattan’s Victorian winter wonderland at the Central Park Conservancy’s 14^th Annual Holiday Lighting.  Enjoy hot cocoa, live carolers, cookie decorating, crafts and an opportunity to take photographs with Father Christmas.  FREE.  No advance registration.  All ages welcome.  For more information, call 212-860-1370.  http://support.centralparknyc.org/site/Calendar/1253496182?view=Detail&id=112081

Origami Christmas Tree at the American Museum of Natural History – For over thirty years the museum has celebrated the holiday season with its origami tree.  This year will be no exception as it will be decorated with the theme of discovery, from dinosaur digs to space exploration.  Also, don’t miss the two 19-foot Holiday Barosaurs lit up for viewing as well.  Tree viewing begins on November 22, 2010 and will remain up until January 2, 2011.  Central Park West at 79^th Street.  212-875-5456 www.amnh.org

Christmas Tree at The Metropolitan Museum of Art-  November 23, 2010-January 6, 2011.  The Museum will display its Christmas Tree and Neapolitan Baroque Creche.  The twenty foot spruce will be adorned with 18^th century Neapolitan angels and Cherubs flanking the nativity scene in the Museum’s Medieval Sculpture Hall.  Lighting ceremonies are held Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays at 3:30pm and 4:30pm, and Fridays and Saturdays at 4:30pm, 5:30pm, and 6:30pm.   1000 5^th Ave  at 82^nd Street.   www.metmuseum.org 212-535-7710.

Park Avenue Tree Lighting Ceremony– Sunday, December 5, 2010 6:30pm.  The Brick Presbyterian Church located at 91^st Street and Park Ave.  Every year since 1945 the firs that line Park Avenue have been lit to remember and honor those who have lost their lives in our nation’s wars.

Tree Lighting Celebration at Citi Pond inside Bryant  Park- Thursday, December 2, 2010  at 6pm.  www.bryantpark.org

Lighting of the World’s Largest Hanukkah Menorah- This 32 foot tall, two ton candelabra will be lit at the Grand Army Plaza at Fifth Avenue and 59^th Street.  The nightly lighting ceremonies will be accompanied by folk dancing and holiday jelly donuts.   The festivities take place on December 1 – December 9, 2010 at 5:30 pm and 3:30pm on Fridays.

Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting- Tuesday, November 30, 2010.  7pm-9pm.  The Norway Spruce will be illuminated by 30,000 environmentally friendly LED lights on five miles of wire!  www.rockefellercenter.com

Chorus Tree at South Street Seaport – Don’t miss the tree lighting on Friday, November 26^th 2010 at the South Street Seaport’s Historic Cobblestone Area – South Street and Fulton.  6pm.  Soon enough, the bright lights of New York City are going to be drowned out by the beautiful lights of the holiday. The South Street Seaport is kicking it off with a traditional tree lighting ceremony where a 55 foot Norway Spruce will be lit up the day after Thanksgiving.   Santa will be available for complimentary photos from 6:30pm-8pm.  Carolers perform Fridays at 6pm and 7pm and Saturdays and Sundays at 3pm and 4 pm through Christmas.  It provides a festive break from the holiday madness.  www.southstreetseaport.com

 

Santa

Macy’s Santaland and Puppet Theatre- Visit the real Santa Claus at Macy’s Santaland located on the 8^th floor of Macy’s Herald Square.  Open daily from 9am to 9pm, from Friday, November 25 through Saturday, December 24, 2010.  Admission is free.

Santa Pub Crawl- For the over-21 crowd, this holiday season you can follow Santa and his helpers to local bars for the Santa Pub Crawl.  The 2010 Santa Pub Crawl New York City will take place on Friday, December 10^th.  For more information, visit www.spcnyc.com.

 

Ice Skating in New York

The Ice Rink at Rockefeller Center – www.therinkatrockcenter.com  212-332-7654

Citi Pond at Bryant Park – Citi Pond is the centerpiece of Bryant Park’s winter season.  The 170’ x 100’ rink features free admission skating in addition to high quality rentals.   Open October 29^th, 2010 until February 27^th, 2011.  Sunday through Thursday, 8am – 10pm and Friday and Saturdays from 8am –midnight.   www.citipondatbryantpark.com

Trump Wollman Rink – Located in Central Park, the rink is near the east side of the Park, just steps from the Central Park Zoo and The Plaza Hotel.  It offers ice hockey, a skating school and party facilities.  For more information including rink hours call 212-439-6900 or visit www.wollmanskatingrink.com.  

Best Places for Hot Chocolate

Dylan’s Candy Bar – Visit the upper level of this Willy Wonka like candy store for a mug of hot chocolate topped with either cookies, birthday cake or, of course, candy. One size $7.00  www.dylanscandystore.com  1011 Third Ave.

La Maison du Chocolat – The grand daddy of chocolate shops has a tasting salon in the back where hot chocolate lovers are in for a real treat.  Try the semi sweet or very dark blends for an over-the-top, hot chocolate experience.  One size: $8.00  1018 Madison Avenue (between 78^th and 79^th St.)  212-744-7117  www.lamaisonduchocolat.com

Sant Ambroeus – 1000 Madison Avenue (between 77^th and 78^th St.)  212-570-2211  www.santambroeus.com . Their hot chocolate is beyond!

Lexington Candy Shop – Sit at the counter and have an old New York experience as you and your children will enjoy the classic Nestle’s cocoa.  One size: $1.50 or $2.95 made with milk.  1226 Lexington Avenue at 83^rd Street.  www.lexingtoncandyshop.com.

Francois Chocolate Bar at Mauboussin – Located on the fourth floor of jeweler Mauboussin, on the Upper East Side.  Indulge in Payard’s signature sweets which are on full display.  You can buy some fabulous jewelry while you’re at it! 714 Madison Avenue (fourth floor) 212-759-1600.

 

Holiday Lights Bus Tour

Year after year New York is the top destination for Holiday travels.  Come get a taste of why Christmas in New York makes the season bright for so many.  See the lights, the music, everything that makes New York spectacular during the holidays!  On this guided bus tour through New York you will see the city’s famous holiday lights!  Come see Rockefeller Center’s Holiday splendor.  Rockefeller Center’s lighted Christmas tree and its outdoor skating rink are just some of the many sites you’ll enjoy on this unforgettable tour of New York City and its Holiday lights.   The tour runs approximately 3 hours daily at 7pm, 7:30pm, or 8pm, November 23, 2010 – January 1, 2011.  Tickets range from Free for children under the age of 5, $33.95 for children between the ages of 5-11 and 48.95 for Adults.  There is a $5 savings for tours booked online.  Reserve online or call toll free at 888-880-9108. 

http://www.nytours.us/?event=offer.detail&offerId=5170

  

 

 Christine Miller Martin, Managing Director – 212-439-5194 / cmartin@warburgrealty.com

 Hunter Hulshizer, Salesperson – 212-439-4564 / hhulshizer@warburgrealty.com

 

 

 

 

 

Thanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday. Every year, at the end of our Thanksgiving dinner, my extended family goes around the table and each person speaks about what they feel particularly thankful for. This year I have a lot: my mother remains healthy and vital; I am still crazy about my wife after 33 years of marriage and we continue to lead engaged lives in which we try to give back at least some of what we get; we will welcome our first grandchild in January; our kids are both happily married and do interesting and challenging work. That’s the personal side.  And my professional gratitude list?  Here goes:

1) The Manhattan market had a good year overall, in spite of the lingering clouds of the recession. While confidence is still shaky, many buyers recognized value in our marketplace (especially relative to their other investments), so business has been good.

2) I have learned to run a tighter ship. Warburg closed two offices in early 2009 and I don’t really miss them. My wonderful staff, most of whom have been with us for many years, work every day in the dedicated manner which enables us to function effectively with 80% of the support people we employed in 2007.

3) Property is cheaper. More people can afford it, especially in this historically low interest rate environment. We are not selling exclusively to Wall Streeters any more, although finance professionals still make up a substantial percentage of our buyer and seller base. Attorneys, artists, doctors, actors, small business owners, corporate executives, real estate investors-we  are working with a more diverse professional group than at any time in the recent past.

4) There are fewer, more dedicated agents in the marketplace. At the height of the real estate boom people flooded into our business, believing that a real estate salesperson’s license was a license to print money. Now most of them have discovered how hard the job actually is and have moved on. This leaves a smaller group of more professional, better trained agents most of whom actually know what they are doing!

5)  The real estate agent has not suffered the fate of the travel agent. Statistics from the National Association of Realtors indicate that more consumers than ever use the services of a broker when embarking on a residential purchase or sale. With all the information out there in cyberspace, buyers and sellers need someone  to act as an interpreter and advisor. That’s what we do!

Happy Thanksgiving. What are YOU thankful for?

For many years,when I worked in Midtown Manhattan Grand Central was literally and figuratively my hub.Every day I made my way to offices at various buildings in the area -two that still stand out in my memory are the Lincoln Building,which is now One Grand Central Place and the Helmsley Building (such lovely holiday decorations,and often even musicians in the lobby !) That said,while most of the year it could at times feel overwhelming-especially if I was venturing out of Manhattan (shocking,I know) ,racing to catch the Metro-North,like clockwork every year just before Thanksgiving ,my feelings changed.

I love the light shows,and especially the Grand Central Terminal Holiday Fair. Grand Central is one of my favorite buildings in all of Manhattan,but add the fair and I will always find a way to pass thru ! The show opened on Monday,with the Rockette’s cutting the ribbon.

This year there are about 76 vendors.A great place to get unique gifts for those very special people !

The fair is open seven days a week,except for Thanksgiving Day. For more information head to GrandCentralTerminal.com

 

As 2010 winds down, I am reflecting on the 19 years during which I have been the President of Warburg Realty (formerly Ashforth Warburg, before that Albert B. Ashforth, Inc) where I came to work in January of 1986 as the Associate Director of the Residential Sales Division. While the business has changed in many ways, the fundamental structure of how real estate firms operate has remained pretty much the same.

Our agents are all independent contractors. They earn commissions, which we divide with them in percentages based on their earnings history (the more they earn, the bigger the percentage). We provide desks, phones, computer and IT services, marketing and PR. We maintain our website and our iPhone application, making sure that both remain state of the art. And increasingly we provide training in both the traditional areas such as negotiating, working with customers, or handling an exclusive and the newer but equally necessary topics like the intricacies of Web 2.0 and getting the most out of Outlook 2010. As the head of any brokerage firm will tell you, this is a narrow margin business. While the established Manhattan firms have staying power, many of our smaller colleagues have been plowed under during the recession; nationwide, brokerages have folded, consolidated, or downsized in huge numbers since the national real estate downturn began in 2006. Many of the business owners I spoke to at the National Association of Realtors conference last week in New Orleans told me that they are losing money on their brokerage operations, and it is the offering of ancillary services, such as mortgages or title  insurance, which keeps them afloat. 

The rallying cry at the NAR conventions is “retention.”  Seminar after seminar is directed at how to keep your top agents from jumping ship. For those of us who are lucky enough to direct and work at New York’s top companies, the answer is relationships. In the end, I think it is the same in any business. My agents, and those working for my top competitors, stick around because the powerful internal network of relationships which they have built . Many of the agents at Warburg have worked with us for 20 years or more, and I hope and believe  it is more than money which keeps them here. They are a second family to me. I have enormous admiration for these highly skilled, hard working, unsalaried professionals, who rarely get credit when things go right but are almost always blamed when they go wrong. And I hope I am communicating that every day.

Albany Bahamas officially opened at the beginning of October to a host of members and their guests, all discovering what has been the best kept secret on the island of Nassau.

With approximately 300 member families already, and this number growing weekly, we have been extremely encouraged by the positive feedback we have received…. not just about the world class facilities, but the excellent food, service and ambiance.

Families have been taking full advantage of the kid’s amenities, and in particular the Treasure Island water park and the Conch House. Already we have hosted 6 Birthday parties with many more to come. Our Blackbeard’s Halloween Party was a huge success with over 200 attendees playing games by Azul and feasting in Footprints…

 On adult side – Aviva and Vesper have been booked solid each weekend. Aviva is establishing itself as the best and most exclusive restaurant on the island and the upstairs Vesper Lounge is attracting a lot of attention as the new weekend hot spot on the West End of the island.

This of course has spurned an increase interest in the Real Estate in ALBANY. We have only 1 Beach Front Lot remaining and we have had 7 transactions in the past 3 weeks! Also – we have most of the available cottages rented over the holidays at between 5 and 6 thousand dollars a night.

Harbor Master’s Station

 

 

I am on my way home from New Orleans, where I have spent the last three days at the National Association of Realtors conference. While I was there I took a fascinating tour of the lower Ninth Ward and the surrounding bayous, so now I have a better understanding of what actually took place in the aftermath of Katrina and why the maintenance of the wetlands around the city, as well as the levees, are so crucial to the city’s survival and health in the decades ahead.

The conference was full of interesting information about real estate values nationwide and the overall impact of the economy on our industry. My favorite take-aways appear below.

Lawrence Yun, the economist for NAR, took the average of the predictions of 100 economists about the years ahead for existing home sales and arrived at the following (Mr. Yun says that even though individual economists are almost always wrong, averaging their predictions shows an uncanny prescience):
* Price increase in real estate during 2011: .78%
* Price increase in real estate during 2012: 2.3%

I love it when 100 economists overall agree with me that we are looking forward to a year with almost no price appreciation! As we all know, real estate is local so in New York, if bonuses are good, we may do a little better. But I do not think we are looking at substantial price growth until we have more consumer confidence and better job growth.

Mr. Yun also informed us that the Consumer Price Index for 2010 is a mere 1.1%. While this is a historically low number, it reflects the fact that that nationally, real estate prices continued to fall throughout much of the year, thus exerting downward pressure on the other elements of the CPI (this made me once again relieved to be a broker in New York, where 2010 saw modest but genuine gains in residential real estate values).  The Producer Price Index for crude products, including many raw materials for manufacturing and food production, is at 20%. If prices in the crude products sector continue escalating at that rate, inflation and higher interest rates are inevitable, regardless of the Fed’s desire to stimulate the economy with cheap money.

Mr. Yun predicts that mortgage rates will remain around 5% on average through 2011, and then up to 5.5% in 2012. But he cautioned that continued growth in the deficit is a real wild card and could affect both the economy and interest rates in unpredictable ways.

For today we know that mortgage rates for most products are below 5% and that since the end of the third quarter of 2000 the Dow is up 7.5% (10,650 in 2000 vs 11,407 today), the S & P is down 15% (1436 in 2000 vs 1223 today), the NASDAQ is down  30% (3672 in 2000 vs 2580 today) and real estate in Manhattan has appreciated 40% or more during the same period. Please draw your own conclusions.