Warburg Blog

I had numerous phone conversations today with Warburg agents who are negotiating multi-million dollar deals (and a couple of multi-multi-million dollar deals.) In contemplating the strategies we discussed, I was struck by the uniqueness of the environment in which we New York City real estate agents are privileged to live. Three years after the nadir of the real estate crash and its attendant financial collapse, our high-end co-op market is healthy and vibrant, with multiple expressions of interest for many ultra expensive properties. And I am talking the co-op market, which by definition does not include foreign buyers. So this is (for the most part) home grown money.

Who are these buyers, and why are they acting this way? Let’s address part one of the question first, and let’s answer it backwards. Here’s who they are NOT: men and women with jobs at the big Wall Street firms. With bonus sizes plunging from last year, and cash compensation a negligible part of the bonuses, even the Wall Street hotshots are not getting paid anything resembling the fabulous sums which drove the markets in 2005, 2006, and 2007. We still see some private equity guys. And there is definitely a strong contingent of hedge funders – either the smart ones or the lucky ones, as so many of their brethren have gone out of business. We see some global manufacturers. We see real estate investors, and REIT owners. Actually, today’s high end buyers run the gamut of professions, EXCEPT that not so many of them work for large Wall Street firms.

As to why this market is so vibrant, I think there are several answers. First, good property is scarce. There is little new condominium inventory, and there are never too many large co-op apartments on the market. With local capital gains taxes at 27%, older people would often rather redecorate than move. So demand tends to exceed supply. Second, the local high end real estate market has recovered much if not all of its value over the past few years, bolstered in substantial part by the international money boosting condo sales. It looks increasingly attractive to home buyers exasperated by the unpredictable rapid cycling of the stock and bond markets. Real estate is, in the truest sense of the word, concrete.

And finally there is the sense of new beginning which always accompanies the purchase of a new home. As the economy slowly improves, those who can afford the luxury of change want to embody the return of (guarded) optimism with an investment in the future. New real estate always represents the possibility of new beginnings, of a clean slate. And who isn’t excited by that?

Ever wonder how Manhattan got to have such a logical and easy arrangement of streets on a grid?  Uniquely planned in 1811 and executed with some incredible growing pains, “The Greatest Grid” celebrates 200 years of enduring influence with a wonderful exhibit at The Museum of the City of NY – Fifth Avenue at 103^rd Street.  Maps, proposals, stunning photographs of rolling hills and pastoral landscapes that became our diverse, energetic powerhouse of a city are on display.  Did you know that the West Side was incredibly rocky with cliffs/hills 30-40 feet tall?  And then there is the exception of the diagonal Broadway cutting across it all and the immobile Grand Central which had the grid go around its magnificence!  Especially of interest to those interested in real estate (all of us!) since this grid in one fell swoop rationalized the city map and gave birth to the modern real estate market.  DO consider going on the weekdays to see the exhibit as the weekends have been mobbed!  Exhibit continues until April 15. http://www.mcny.org/

Life is a negotiation. Whether it is with our partner, our children, our extended families, or our co-workers, we are engaged in the give and take of negotiation every day. But the degree to which our personalities and engagement styles inform HOW we negotiate is something we rarely consider.  Take me, for example. I have a big personality and a lot of opinions, but at heart I am much more bark than bite. I want everyone to be happy. I want consensus. So I have to be on guard all the time in my business life lest this desire to make people happy compel me to give away too much too soon.

Over the years I have both observed and participated in thousands of sales and rental negotiations. Here are a few things that I have learned about how personality shapes negotiation:

* You must figure out your own style and learn both how to use it and how to control it. For me, that has meant harnessing my enthusiasm in order to generate excitement and good will while at the same time knowing that much of the time I just need to shut up.

* In the same way, you have to be aware of the negotiating style of your customer or client (or broker, or partner, or boss, or mother). The CEO, who is always in a hurry and views every decision from 30,000 feet, needs accurate facts and an overview NOW. He will make a quick decision if you are on hand with what he needs. The CFO, on the other hand, may need to come back and measure everything a few times and will be extremely deliberate. He probably will NOT make a quick decision. And the scorched earth negotiator needs to be met, calmly, with the countervailing facts.

* Silence is golden. Biting your tongue will both stop you from giving too much away and at the same time create an environment in which your counterpart, for the same reason, may be tempted to over-speak. One cardinal rule of negotiation is that less is more when it comes to talking.

* If your clients or customers are a couple, watch THEIR interaction carefully. It will be up to you to understand how they make decisions, and it is rarely as straightforward as it appears at first. The talky one with the big opinions (in my marriage, ME!) is not necessarily the one whose desires will carry the day. Once again, silence is golden. If you stay quiet and observe, you can develop a perception of their negotiating style as a couple which will help you sort their priorities and make the right deal. 

* It is NEVER strategic to lose your cool. Your frustration is your problem.  Buyers and sellers can easily become emotionally involved in the transaction, so as agents it is our job not to let those emotions hijack the interaction. The best decisions are always made by cool heads. Maintaining a friendly professional demeanor will create good will no matter what your part in the deal. Having a tantrum will do the opposite. It is always your choice.

Managing a negotiation never involves just the price, the closing date, the terms. Managing a negotiation involves addressing all the subtle ways in which each participant either helps or hinders the issues and personalities to coalesce into a successful transaction. And the more conscious we all are of the psychological and stylistic issues which shape our responses, the more effective we are likely to be.

Yesterday evening I was engaged in a conversation with the composer Joan LaBarbara about the ways, good and bad, in which the Internet has opened the world of music to the general public. The Internet has also opened the world of listings to the general public. And this too is good and bad. Access to information has certainly created better informed consumers. But knowing the listings does not create expertise. The training, focus, and market knowledge possessed by the better real estate agents simply cannot be duplicated by the lay person.  Nowhere is this more evident than in the preparation of the Board package. In her wonderfully funny new book about moving to New York, “The Last Blind Date”, Linda Yellin includes a full chapter on her co-op purchase experience. The Board process made NO sense to a Chicagoan like Linda, and frankly I think many New Yorkers, even those who think they know, really don’t understand just how time consuming and critical this piece of the puzzle can be. To make matters worse for squeamish prospective purchasers, established condos seem to be taking a page from the co-op playbook and requiring extensive Board packages themselves. So probably, if you as a buyer aren’t buying a townhouse or a condo offered by the sponsor, a Board package is in your future. So let’s open 2012 with a few tips for navigating the process:

* The Board package, when well executed should present a concise and comprehensive view of your life-familial, social, and financial. It should give the Board information about where you come from, what your interests are, what philanthropic endeavors occupy your time, what your kids are like-everything necessary to create a full picture.

* You will need to create a complete financial statement, along with back-up schedules and independent verification of all your assets. You will also need at least a couple of years of (probably complete) tax returns.

* The Blumberg form of co-op contract, which is used by most attorneys, only allows two weeks for Board package preparation. Take my word for it, this isn’t enough, especially when you include broker review. Make sure to get yourself three weeks rather than the two in the printed form.

* Really give some thought to who will write your social and business reference letters. These should be planned to include people who have known you a long time, people who know your kids, people who know your philanthropies; the letters should contain a full range of different perspectives. And please don’t you write them all or send the authors the same sample letter! It wastes a lot of everyone’s time if we have to go back to Square One with the letters because they are all written in the same font with the same salutation (a sure sign that the buyer wrote them all) or if they all contain the same middle paragraph ( a sure sign that the writers all received the same sample letter).

* About five days before the package is finally submitted, you will become so fed up with the process that it will actually seem sensible to you to a) assassinate your broker, b) move to a yurt in Outer Mongolia, or both. Don’t despair; this is the darkest hour before the dawn. And please don’t take it out on your agent either. Boards really ARE looking for all the details, clearly and sequentially presented. Remember, everyone you know who lives in a co-op has been through the same thing.

* Finally, when you are in the mood described in the bullet point above, do not say, or believe, that it is OK to hand in an incomplete package because “if they want more information they can come back and ask me for it.” Yes, they can, but often they won’t. They will just turn you down. It is far easier to provide all the detail the requirements, and your agent, ask for up front.

A Board package is time consuming, frustrating, and invasive. But it is the only way to end up with the co-op you want to live in. So take a deep breath, accept it, and work with your agent to make the process as painless as possible. No offense, but we really DO know more about this process than you do.

Who Wouldn’t Want to Occupy It?

Never mind the construction, the human megaphones, and the tourists: A more livable lower Manhattan is emerging.

The world’s eyeballs were glued to lower Manhattan twice in 2011, first with the unveiling of the World Trade Center Memorial and then with Occupy Wall Street. Outside of New York, the area’s Q rating has never been higher. Inside, the story’s the same, but for very different reasons. Suddenly, a lot of people want to live in the square mile below Chambers Street—56,000 by one recent count, up 60 percent from 2005—and a growing number of businesses and developers, not to mention tastemakers like Danny Meyer and Frank Gehry, are racing to meet them. Here, a comprehensive accounting of the new restaurants, bars, shops, schools, parks, and 24-hour Über-pharmacies turning the onetime office ghetto into a full-fledged neighborhood.

Liquor

The party no longer ends at happy hour.

The neighborhood’s traditionally pubby drinking scene got its first destination cocktail joint over the summer in Silver Lining (1) (75 Murray St., nr. Greenwich St.; 212-513-1234), a subterranean jazz bar run by Little Branch vets. Serious imbibers are also alighting on The Living Room (2) (123 Washington St., nr. Albany St.; 646-826-8646), which slings drinks designed by mixologist Charlotte Voisey on the moodily lit fifth floor of the W Downtown hotel. The beer scene has also improved dramatically thanks to Porterhouse Brewing Company at the historic Fraunces Tavern (3) (54 Pearl St., nr. Broad St.; 212-968-1776) and Keg No. 229 (4) (229 Front St., nr. Peck Slip; 212-566-2337), which offers a 21st-century take on beer appreciation, with self-serve draft spouts and consumption-tracking LED screens. Two-story newcomer The Growler Bites & Brews (5) (55 Stone St., nr. William St.; 917-409-0251) takes a resident-friendly stance by welcoming patrons’ pooches to its cobblestone patio. It’s two-legged customers only at the Bailey Pub & Brasserie (6) (52 William St., nr. Wall St.; 212-859-2200), a classic late-night deal-sealing operation with soaring windows, a steak-frites-leaning menu, and red leather banquettes.

Lunch

It’s not just Boar’s Head heros anymore.

The arrival of several major lunch players from elsewhere in the city has signaled the end of the reign of the dirty-floor deli. That sea change gained momentum with, what else, a Shake Shack (1) (215 Murray St., nr. West St.; 646-545-4600), which is rumored to reserve one grill for upstairs neighbors Goldman Sachs. The Luke’s Lobster (2) (26 William St., nr. Broad St.; 212-747-1700) boys likewise brought their popular lobster-roll operation down to these parts over the summer, while Julian Medina chose the financial district for his Toloache Taqueria (3) (83 Maiden Ln., nr. Gold St.; 212-809-9800), the casual, order-at-the-counter branch of his mini Latin American empire. French chef François Payard (4) (210 Murray St., nr. West St.; 212-566-8300) joined the migration with his casual pastries-and-sandwiches-and-salads concept in October. Even Chicago-based sub chain Potbelly Sandwich Shop (5) (101 Maiden Ln., nr. Pearl St.; 646-289-4201) zeroed in on the hood for its first New York location, introducing its Dagwood-worthy stacks of meat, meat, and more meat to Wall Street this summer.

Future Eats

Where Danny Meyer goes, many follow.

In his hotly anticipated North End Grill (1) (104 North End Ave., at Vesey St.; 646-747-1600), Meyer hopes to do for Fidi what Marcus Samuelsson’s Red Rooster did for Harlem—that is, rouse a sleepy fine-dining scene. The 120-seat restaurant, with Floyd Cardoz of Tabla at the helm, plans to unveil its open kitchen and serious Scotch menu before the New Year. Another Meyer operation, a smaller outpost of Gramercy’s Blue Smoke (2) (225 Vesey St., nr. North End Ave.; no phone yet), is also slated to open by year’s end. Meanwhile, Renowned U.K. bartender Sean Muldoon and Puck Fair’s Danny McDonald are teaming up on a bar, The Dead Rabbit (3) (no address or phone yet), that will focus on mid-nineteenth-century drinking culture, with one room devoted to craft beers and a fancier one re-creating punches and other cocktails from that era. Cocktail buffs will also herald the arrival of Demi Monde (4) (90 Broad St., nr. Stone St.; no phone yet) from Death & Co.’s David Kaplan, David Blatt of Interstate Food & Liquor, and others. Also coming up: Pizza Vinoteca (5) (32 Water St., nr. Broad St.; no phone yet), a wine-and-grilled-pizza experiment from Top Chef all-star Stephen Asprinio; and an unnamed project on Pier A (6) (Pier A, 4 Battery Pl., nr. West St.) from Peter Poulakakos of Harry’s Steak, Financier Patisserie, Ulysses, and the Growler Bites & Brews. His group won the coveted lease to Victorian Pier A in Battery Park City, where they’ll open a beer garden, seafood restaurant, and oyster bar in 2013.

Perishables

Eat your locavore heart out, Union Square.

Since its founding in 2005, the New Amsterdam Market (1) (South St. nr. Peck Slip; Sundays, May through December) at the old Fulton Fish Market site has grown from an occasional event to a monthly happening to (nowadays) a weekly fixture endowed with prepared pickles and salamis, an impressive local wine selection, and more lobster rolls from Luke’s. Veggie lovers can also stock up at area Greenmarkets, including the neighborhood’s newest Greenmarket at the World Financial Center (2) (South End Ave. at Liberty St.; Thursdays, April through December), where a concierge service lets office workers shop early and pick up purchases at the end of the day. At the Andaz Wall Street farmers’ market (3) (75 Wall St., nr. Pearl St.; Saturdays and Wednesdays, April through mid-December), some of the farmer vendors that supply hotel restaurant Wall & Water offer their wares direct to consumers in the Andaz courtyard. There’s also a weekly CSA in collaboration with Pennsylvania-based Down Home Acres Farm.

<!– /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Cambria; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:”"; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Cambria; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:”Times New Roman”; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} –>

Conveniences

Until the megamall arrives, it’s all about the essentials.

Century 21 aside, lower Manhattan is not a great shopping neighborhood. It is, however, an ideal location for the city’s (nay, the world’s) most multitasking Duane Reade (1) (40 Wall St., nr. Nassau St.; 212-742-8454). The five-month-old store is open 24 hours and packed with a small town’s worth of services: a hair salon, a manicure station, a shoeshine, a flower kiosk, a jewelry counter, and a sushi bar. Other newcomers filling neighborhood niches: old-school stationer Midtown Comics (3) (64 Fulton St., nr. Gold St.; 212-302-8192); high-end frame fashioner Artsee Eyewear (4) (220 Murray St., nr. West St.; 212-227-2400); and florist–gift shop Bloom (5) (255 Murray St., nr. Greenwich St.; 646-414-6269; opens 1/9). For wardrobe fixes, T.J. Maxx (6) (14 Wall St., nr. Nassau St.; 212-587-8459) expanded here last month, as did menswear labels My.Suit (7) (30 Broad St., nr. Exchange Pl.; 646-556-7430) and JoS. A. Bank (8) (111 Broadway, nr. Cedar St.; 212-227-3684). But the biggest development is yet to come in 2013: Brookfield Properties’ (9) $250 million World Financial Center retail hub is envisioned as the downtown answer to the Shops at Columbus Circle, with 40 shops, six restaurants, and subway access (200 Vesey St., nr. West St.; no phone yet).

Greenery

Everywhere you look, a new park has popped up.

The year’s most obvious lower-Manhattan news is the reconstruction of the World Trade Center (1) site and the inauguration of Memorial Plaza, which will eventually be joined by 1 World Trade Center, four additional towers, and the Santiago Calatrava–designed World Trade Center Transportation Hub. For the locals, however, the action is in Battery Park, where an entire acre has been set aside for the Urban Farm (2), composed of 80 plots of farmers’-market-bound organic vegetables, herbs, and flowers, tended by kids from local public schools. Frank Gehry has settled in here, as well, but not to design another blockbuster building. His Battery Playspace (3) (Battery Park, State St.), is set to replace the current, outdated playground in early 2013. In the meantime, parents and kids can begin to switch up their recreational scenery at Imagination Playground (4) (2 Fulton St., nr. South St.), a futuristic kiddie zone designed by David Rockwell; Teardrop Park South (5) (Vesey St. at River Terr.), the Michael van Valkenburgh–designed offshoot of the original Teardrop, featuring high-tech mirrors that bounce sunlight into its shady areas; and along the Fulton Street Corridor (6) (at Pearl St.), where Pearl Street Playground’s new sandbox and plaza will join the recently cleaned-up Titanic Park (at Water Street). Just north of the South Ferry terminal is the revamped and relandscaped Peter Minuit Plaza (9 Battery Park, nr. White Hall Terminal) (7), home to a picnic-ready pavilion designed by Dutch architect Ben van Berkel. The first section of the planned two-mile East River Esplanade (8) (South St. bet. Maiden Ln. and Wall St.) opened this summer, and its Pier 15, with a boating dock, café, and upper-deck lawn, will be up and running soon. (In 2013, the East River Esplanade and Hudson River Park will be connected via the Battery Garden Bikeway.) There’s also the redevelopment effort along Liberty Street, which has led to the renovation of Louise Nevelson Plaza (9) (William St., Liberty St., and Maiden Ln.), first built in 1977 and now showing off its namesake feminist sculptor’s works again.

Workouts (Both Mental and Physical)

New schools for the kids, new gyms for the parents.

As lower Manhattan has become a gravitational center for young families, the schools have kept up with the playgrounds (see above) in number and design. Battery Park City School, P.S./I.S. 276 (1) (55 Battery Pl., nr. First Pl.) is one of the first schools designed and built under the city’s Green Schools Guide. The partially solar-­powered elementary school features an outdoor science classroom and unobstructed views of the Statue of Liberty. Also new to the area is the Spruce Street School (2) (12 Spruce St., nr. Park Row), an elementary school occupying the brick base of Eight Spruce Street, the tallest residential building in America, with an undulating façade designed by the neighborhood’s busiest architect, Frank Gehry.* For more grown-up mental pursuits, there’s the new 10,000-foot Battery Park City Library (3) (175 North End Ave., at Murray St.), Manhattan’s first LEED-certified library, and Hive at 55 (4) (55 Broad St., nr. Beaver St.), a new work space for freelancers and start-ups created under Mayor Bloomberg’s MediaNYC 2020 program. And in the fitness realm, there’s a SoulCycle (5) (103 Warren St., nr. Greenwich St.) spinning studio, where Chelsea Clinton allegedly got into wedding shape last year, and arriving soon, a new Battery Park City campus of Asphalt Green (6) (212 North End Ave., nr. Murray St.). The extension of the popular Upper East Side facility promises 52,000 square feet of fitness equipment and classrooms.

Hubs

No need to transfer.

How to handle all this new traffic? In addition to the World Trade Center station, the Fulton Street Transit Center (1) (Fulton St. at Broadway) will eventually connect twelve subway lines and the path train in one megafacility. A new entrance to the A/C/2/3 lines opened in August on William Street, with another scheduled for 2012, and by 2014, the whole $1.4 billion project should be complete. And, should you need to get across the river, the five-month-old East River Ferry network stops every twenty minutes at Pier 11 (2) (Gouverneur Ln. at South St.), one of seven stops along the route.

[Source: NYMag.com]

In New York, a slowing real estate market characterized the fourth quarter of 2011. Fewer purchasers at every level signed contracts than in the preceding three months, and the market retained the highly stratified characteristics which had marked it throughout the year. Co-ops at the lowest end of the market remained an extremely tough sell, while condos at the upper end continued in popularity, especially with foreign buyers.

The marquee sale of Sanford Weill’s penthouse at 15 CPW for $88 million was a particular highlight of the fourth quarter. While unique at $13,000 per foot, the sale was emblematic of the willingness on the part of foreigners, particularly those from the former Soviet Union, to spend extraordinary amounts of money the world over for trophy properties. All over Manhattan, foreign buyers, especially from Russia, Asia and South America, have driven new condo prices up as they use our real estate as a safe haven for their capital. The lower priced properties, frequently in multiples, are the preferred purchase of Asian investors. The high profile, high price units are more often purchased by South American or Russian nationals, likely as pied-a-terre apartments for use a few times per year.

In addition to serving as investment vehicles for investors from around the world, sales continued briskly in the one to three bedroom new condo markets all over town. The fourth quarter saw continued healthy absorption in Harlem and Williamsburg, in Chelsea and the Madison Park area, with a mix of users, investors, and parents purchasing for kids writing the checks. While the pace slowed from earlier in the year, it continued strongly enough to further whittle down the inventory overhang from what appeared to be overbuilding a few years back. Now that these units are getting absorbed, however, an inventory shortage seems more likely to afflict us than an overhang. And for the first time in several years, eager buyers are buying new condos from plans; the Toll Brothers building on 65th and Lexington is almost sold out although the infrastructure has only reached about the eighth floor.

The co-op market, meanwhile, was subject to a highly different set of forces. Without the boost of foreign capital, the mood remained cautious. Among properties costing $5 million and up, scarcity dictated the terms of the market; with so little available, well priced properties in excellent condition were still attracting multiple offers. But with an uncertain economy, the prospect of shrunken Wall Street bonuses, and a country paralyzed by political bickering, the fourth quarter was a time for caution. No one wanted to go too far out on a limb. So even larger co-ops had to be priced exactly right if they were to sell. Buyers were not stretching. They once again liked real estate as an alternative to the zero-sum roller coaster of the stock market, but only at the right price. As for the older condos, they are increasingly indistinguishable from co-ops; their Boards are demanding more and more information, both financial and personal, in the Board packages, and just waiting out the buyers who won’t supply it. Sooner or later, most of those buyers just throw up their hands and walk away.

In the $2 million to $5 million market, the same realities applied. There was less multiple bidding during the last few months of the year than there had been earlier, but even in the multiple bid situations which DID arise, the properties had to be well priced and in great condition. And then the bids rarely went much, if at all, above the asking price. And as the co-ops got smaller, the inventory got larger. The studio and one bedroom markets, especially in the postwar buildings which line the eastern avenues of the East Side from 96th Street down to 14th Street, are still available in quantity and absorption continues to be slow. One of the events to watch for in 2012 will be the tipping point between the undersupplied rental market and the saturated sales market: at what point do those one and two bedroom renters get their increase notices and say, “For this money it would make more sense for me to own”?

2011 was a year in which the complex realities of the newly global economy were felt in every corner of the world. It was a year of market unpredictability during which, on the whole, our New York real estate market was in balance. Buyers and sellers remained largely within their comfort zones, and deals were negotiated aggressively but fairly on both sides. There were some unexpected peaks, like the spring mini-boom, and some unexpected valleys, like the winter doldrums which began the year. But overall well priced properties sold at fair prices to satisfied buyers. We like to think of this as a broker’s market, in which our contribution as brokers in educating both sides and bringing them together seems particularly concrete. We look forward to more of the same in the year ahead. 

Meet Josiph Stamevski, General Manager at Chelsea Manor, a small, trendy lounge in the heart of Chelsea. Their ten-dollar lunch special makes it a popular place for a quick bite to eat and their delicious cocktails ensure that Chelsea Manor always has a crowd.

Chelsea Manor

138 West 25th Street

New York, NY 10001

How would you describe Chelsea Manor?

We are a small lounge that offers affordable lunch, dinner and late night entertainment. Starting in the fall we will also offer delivery.

When did the Chelsea Manor first open?

We opened in January 2011.

Who are your typical clientele?

During happy hour we have a lot of businessmen and of course it varies on the weekend. Friday and Saturday are definitely the busiest nights.

Tell me about the menu and the items served here?

We have a full dinner menu with American tapas and entrees. The martini list is very popular. Personally, I like the passion fruit martini!

What was the best event you’ve hosted so far at the Chelsea Manor?

That would have to be the Cinco De Mayo party we hosted for Forbes magazine. The crowd was huge…a lot of interesting people…a lot of beautiful people – it made for great people watching! It was very extravagant. But we also like to host more modest charity events here – those are great because we have a chance to give back to the community. We contribute part of the proceeds to the charity that is hosting the party.

What was the most creative party at the Chelsea Manor?

We had a birthday party here once that was pretty crazy. Our guest was Brazilian and chose to theme the entire party after his culture – the food, the dancers, everything! The dancers even did flips! I’ve never seen anything like it.

Best thing about running a bar?

It’s challenging because weekends are difficult when it’s busy, but it’s a lot of fun to work here. The staff is like a big family!

For more information on Carriage House or to set up a site visit, please feel free to contact me at JTurken@warburgrealty.com, call 212.24 House (4-6873) or visit the website at www.Carriagehouse24.com

###

Recently I got a request from The Real Deal Magazine to articulate my predictions for the New York market in 2012. I have done this for them every year for the last three or four, and it is always fun to compare what I said to the realities as the year winds down. So far my educated guesses have been pretty good; let’s see if I can keep my record up for 2012. My overall belief is that 2012 will in many significant respects resemble 2011. I expect the Manhattan market to continue to demonstrate the same highly stratified and uncertain behavior which defined last year. More specifically:

* We should anticipate big swings in confidence and therefore in sales and rental activity. I believe that the economy will continue to show gradual signs of improvement, but that volatility in the markets will increase  in the months leading up to the election.

* We will see continuing capital flight from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. These ultra wealthy buyers will bolster the mid and upper ends of the condo market. There is already heavy demand for the new Extell building opposite Carnegie Hall, One FiftySeven, with many prices hovering around the $10,000 per foot mark. And those prices are going up!

* There will be continued emphasis on turnkey condition to bring in top prices. During 2011 most of the really big prices, on a per square foot basis, were paid for either newly constructed property or that which had been completely redone. Most buyers simply don’t want to add the uncertainty of renovation to the considerable list of uncertainties we already face in the current environment. 

* The top end of the market will continue to be active in 2012. We can anticipate a steady stream of deals in the $10 million-and-up category, encompassing town house, co-op and condo transactions. And don’t expect all the purchasers to come from the finance and hedge fund industries! As in 2011, most bankers are receiving a lot of non-cash, future-oriented compensation, and many of the hedge funds did not weather the recent economic storm so easily.  Look for lawyers, real estate investors, and entrepreneurs from all over the country, as well as the world, to be staking a claim to the Big Apple.

* It seems certain that many apartments, especially in the older condos and in co-ops, will continue to linger for months on the market as their sellers try to find an appropriate price. The current environment is filled with mixed signals, which sellers AND brokers can easily misread. Conservative pricing is any seller’s surest way to quick action, but sellers are usually reluctant to price conservatively because they fear leaving money on the table. Hard scrutiny of the comps, and of the assets and deficits of the subject property, will be critical to sales success in 2012. 

* I don’t see the rental market loosening up much in the new year. Everything for rent is expensive and vacancy rates remain at their lowest level in years. Perhaps the ongoing constriction in the rental market will lead to an uptick in the sales of smaller units, which seem increasingly attractive on an after tax monthly payment basis as rents continue to rise. Of course, this brings first time buyers and their families up against the increasingly demanding co-op and condo Boards, which may demand six months, a year, even five years of maintenance in escrow for neophyte purchasers.  A choice between Scylla and Charybdis…

So that, in a nutshell, is my overview on how I think our market will play out over the next six to twelve months. I am going to tuck this away and see how close I was when December of 2012 comes around!