Warburg Blog

There’s plenty of data available to support a U.S. housing recovery even in areas that were hardest hit by the downturn like Miami and Phoenix. New residential construction is on the rise nearly everywhere, and home builders like Toll Brothers, DR Horton and Lennar have been posting significant gains monthly since October 2011. While the housing market indeed is improving across the nation, New York City continues to dazzle as it attracts not only foreign buyers who have found safe haven for sovereign money, but the brightest and the best who make NYC their home.

Demand remains strong in all segments of the market. At the top end in the over $10M category, trading volume and price levels have been climbing steadily since the second half of 2010, following a two year activity hiatus after Lehman’s fall when lavish spending was considered ostentatious. In sharp contrast, today those with the greatest wealth from the U.S. and around the world are buying with enormous confidence. While some seek a hedge, others are purchasing primary shelters and second homes. Many, in fact, are buying from plans again even before sales offices and model showrooms open officially. Beginning in early 2012 with sales at the Touraine, a 15-story Toll Brothers condo at the corner of East 65th and Lexington Avenue, deep pocketed purchasers have resumed signing contracts uptown, downtown, east side and west, even before they walk the actual spaces.   

In the mid to high range, a lack of resale inventory is the overriding concern. A short supply will probably contract even more in the near term until owners settle into the new reality of changing tax laws. Owners of larger residences have hit the pause button and are staying put. Warburg President Frederick Peters predicts, “It’s likely to get worse particularly…where tax ramifications are virtually holding inventory hostage. Facing the prospect of huge capital gains, sellers would rather hold onto their rambling apartments and have their heirs deal with the taxes.” When an already thin supply of 4 and 5 bedroom apartments shrinks even more, 3 bedroom dwellers have fewer purchasing options so they don’t list their homes narrowing the choices for 2 bedroom buyers. This spiral however translates into good news for sellers who price their homes realistically as it stimulates competitive bidding from inventory starved buyers. The tight local stock also works to mitigate the impact of global uncertainties.

Even if current historically low mortgage rates creep up slowly this year, rents are expected to remain high increasing buyer interest for one and two bedrooms. Like their parents and grandparents, Gen X and Y believe in home ownership to build equity. Lending requirements however remain tight and will probably not ease up any time soon. Reviews and re-reviews of both the borrower and the property are as stringent as ever. In an effort to stop overleveraging and the giving of bad loans, regulators have altered the financing landscape measurably and have actually inhibited borrowing for many. 

On the other hand, money has increased for venture capital. According to the social media news blog Mashable, funding for new start ups in New York is up by 40%. Moreover, a rapidly expanding tech sector now challenges Silicon Valley’s dominance as prominent companies like Facebook, Yelp, Tumblr and Foursquare follow Google’s lead and set up shop in The Big Apple. A presence in New York for businesses, both national and international, has always been important, but never more so than today when it seems to be a requisite for success. 

On the educational front, plans have been approved for the building on Roosevelt Island of Cornell NYC Tech—the Bloomberg inspired joint venture between Cornell University and Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. Although the first phase of the graduate school won’t be completed until 2017, classes begin January in temporary space donated by Google at their Chelsea headquarters. “By adding a new state-of-the-art institution to our landscape,” notes Mayor Michael Bloomberg, “we will educate tomorrow’s entrepreneurs and create the jobs of the future… [and] make New York City home to the world’s most talented workforce.”

According to the most recent census, New York’s population of 8,244,910 is expected to grow to 8.7M by 2020 and to 9.1M by 2030. Unique among the world’s cities, New York attracts a vibrant populace—those who seek opportunities in learning and business, those who respect innovation and entrepreneurial spirit, those who strive for a quality of life, those who seek safe haven and also those who desire to show off their trophy homes. Fueled by a confluence of factors including a deep buyer pool, New York real estate continues to outperform the rest of the nation feeding an appetite for both residents and investors from around the world which is bound to grow even stronger. 

My family is reuniting in Boulder, the home of our son, daughter-in-law, and grandson, for Christmas this year. As we fly cross country with millions of other Americans traveling to be with people they love, I am struck by how much my sense of place, family, and community have both reinforced and shaped our family’s real estate needs and those of so many of our contemporaries.

I grew up in a family with an enormous sense of place. My mother’s parents, grandparents and great grandparents were New Yorkers; the Upper East Side, where all of them have lived, has always felt ancestral to me, truly like home turf. For just that reason, I wanted to strike out on my own. I needed my choice of home to update their sense of values, and add the beliefs that my wife and I shared and needed to assert independently.  Our moves, first to Brooklyn Heights and then to the Upper West Side, were a sort of Declaration of Interdependence. On the one hand, we were not completely rejecting the lives of our Upper East Side parents. On the other hand, in choosing to live in a less gentrified and more economically diverse area, we were using real estate to announce our distinct family identity (and believe me, the Upper West Side of 1977 really WAS a different world.) We made friends who shared our beliefs in the West Side playgrounds. Our kids went to different schools than the schools to which we had gone. We felt both connected to and distinct from our families.

Then, as we matured, so did the neighborhood. As we became more affluent, so did the neighborhood. Much of the economic and cultural diversity which we liked in first moving to the West 80s has evanesced. So when our kids came to the age of setting up their own homes, they did what we did. They sought out areas which they felt better embodied how THEY viewed the world. Our daughter, our niece, and many of their friends moved to Brooklyn. Meanwhile, our son and daughter-in-law found opportunity west of the Mississippi and moved to Boulder, where they are now surrounded by a community of like minded young liberal professionals and where they will probably buy a house in the next few years.

Americans redefine themselves by place. As a society, we don’t stay put.  For each generation, our choices about where to live, whether across the Park, across the bridge, or across the country, become a statement about how we see ourselves in relation to both family and community. And wherever we go, into whatever places we believe will reflect us best, we are always working to create that basic human need: a sense of home.

Will we drive over the fiscal cliff?  Whether we do or not taxes and tax breaks are likely to be reconfigured in 2013. So what are the implications for real estate of going over the cliff? And which tax breaks will be the worst for our business (and our world at large) to lose?

I believe 2013 will be a strong year for New York real estate regardless of what the government finally decides to do about spending and revenue. But I do think a plunge off the fiscal cliff will negatively impact our first quarter. On the one hand, business and employment numbers are both improving, and Congress’s inability to resolve its financial plans before December 31 is unlikely to change that. On the other hand, beginning the New Year with no financial plan in place will almost certainly destabilize the stock market, and real estate buyers are far less likely to act when that market is jumpy.  By the end of the first quarter the financial issues will almost certainly be headed towards resolution, stocks will calm down, and real estate buyers will relax and remember that THIS is why people buy real estate in the first place. It’s a good hedge against volatility.

So then we will face the question of HOW the need to raise revenue will be addressed. Of all the proposals on the table, the one with the biggest impact is the one we hear the least about: the loss of Federal deductibility of state and local taxes. While not specifically targeted at real estate, this deduction, if lost, will have enormous impact on the tax bill of most New Yorkers, since our state and local tax rates are so high. We should all be calling our representatives in Congress trying to head this one off at the pass.

There is a lot of talk in real estate circles about the mortgage deduction, about which I wrote a couple of weeks back. Honestly I do not think some scaling back in the mortgage deduction will be that impactful for the New York real estate marketplace. First, with interest rates so low, the deduction just doesn’t amount to that much money anyway. If the government was to roll back the size of a deductible mortgage from $1,000,000 to $500,000, the net cost to those with $1,000,000 mortgages would be under $10,000. Similarly, the loss of the ability to deduct mortgages on a second home, while an inconvenience to many (myself included), is not really a game changer. After all, it would only affect those who can afford second homes!

Finally, there is the anticipated increase in the capital gains tax. This will, in my opinion, have a negative impact on the supply side of our market.  Our capital gains taxes in New York City are already the highest in the country, with about 12.5% of state and local taxes over and above the 15% top Federal rate. With a 5% increase in the top rate, plus the new 3.8% tax on investment income levied on high earners to pay for health care, some owners and investors could be paying above 35% on their appreciated assets. My prediction: during 2013, until individuals become accustomed to the changes, owners of large properties, with large embedded capital gains, simply won’t sell. They will shut the doors to a few of their bedrooms and stay put.

So this is how I see it – some changes in the mortgage deduction would not do much harm to our market. Loss of the deduction on state and local taxes at the Federal level would be a tax disaster for our state in general and our city in particular. And an increase in the capital gains tax rate will shrink our already inadequate supply of large properties, which will add to the gridlock already in place:  the owners of 4 bedroom properties don’t move, so there is less for the buyers who own 3 bedrooms to buy. So they stay put, which leaves less for the people in 2 bedroom apartments to buy. And so on… The tight supply will keep the market strong and fast, even if it is temporarily slowed by volatility in stocks if the automatic tax increases and spending cuts go into effect January 1. No matter what, the events of the next month will tell us a lot about what to expect in the year ahead.

Although I am the grandson of retailers, bankers, and businessmen, I did not expect to go into business myself. As most of you know, I thought I would have a career as a music professor, writing music and teaching classes. Then, when Alexandra and I got married in 1977, she thought with the market SO low it would be a good time to buy an apartment. No one was investing in New York – the city was in the throes of a severe financial crisis, crime was terrible, and many believed that the city was dying. Our decision to buy was economic, since prices were at all time lows, but it was also an act of faith in a city we loved. That apartment search changed my life forever. I was bitten by the bug and it was just a couple of years later that I got my license and became a broker.

In January of 1986 I came to work at Ashforth as a broker and Junior Sales Director. I was 34 years old, but I had a vision. I wanted not only to give brokerage advice, but also to build an environment where people were generous to one another, collegiality was embraced, and where the managers all the way up the line were accessible and well informed. I wanted for myself to work in an environment in which people wanted to do the right thing because it WAS the right thing, and I figured other people might want that too. So a few years later, when the opportunity arose, I bought the company with my shareholders and began trying to put that vision into practice.

Each one of you in this room is here because of that idea, embraced by the entire Warburg management team, of who we are and what we stand for. I don’t know of any other firm which embraces these principals as openly as we do, which really strives to do the right thing, not the expedient thing, even if that can come with a financial cost. It doesn’t always work. There are lapses. But one reason I personally interview everyone who carries the Warburg card is because I believe so strongly in what we stand for and I know that YOU are the daily ambassadors of that message. Each of you was hand chosen for YOUR qualities of intelligence, integrity, and professional skill. It’s a high standard. And as we move forward into 2013, those qualities are more important than ever.

The landscape of our business has changed enormously in the past five years. StreetEasy, Trulia, and a host of other websites have made all our listing information transparent. The recent election made clear that middle class straight white men can no longer decide the fate of the country – the same thing is true of our business. We must honor and respect our past, which is illustrious, while not getting stuck in it. The business world of today is transformed in every way from the one in which I began: our clients and customers come from every ethnicity and background – they are straight and gay, single and married, parents and grandparents and not parents. They are 80 and 50 and 30 years old. They want lofts, they want houses, they want condos, they want co-ops. They want prewar or never lived in before. They want Brooklyn, they want Harlem, they want Fifth Avenue.  This new world, which I believe our new marketing represents, is one I am proud to champion. Whatever our ages, we must approach our business with the spirit of the young: embracing change, excited by technology, committed to always revising our business practices to fit the new realities. Change waits for no man (or woman) and we must make a commitment to embrace it or lose our coveted place at the top of the pyramid.

The good news is, our commitment to flexibility and to doing the right thing is also good business. I am proud to tell you that 2012 has been, as far as we can determine given that the year is not quite over, our second best year ever! And while I hope the management team, the staff and I have succeeded in setting a tone which makes you proud to be at Warburg, I can tell you with certainty that we are extraordinarily proud of you! Your hard work and dedication to only the highest standards of integrity and professionalism made this great year possible. So thank you. I am humbled by the honor you have all done us by putting your faith in Warburg, in your management team, and in me. We won’t let you down!

FUN THINGS TO DO IN NEW YORK CITY THIS HOLIDAY SEASON 2012

Having spent so many wonderful holiday seasons in New York City, we felt we’d share some of our favorite traditions and activities. We hope the attached serves as a useful guide to help you and your family navigate your way through some of New York’s great sights and attractions this season.

Christine Miller Martin & Lisa Larson

Warburg Realty Partnership

Christmas Holiday Shows and Events in New York City

Rockettes 85th Year Celebration 2012

Radio City Music Hall, 1260 6th Avenue, New York, NY 10020; Now – December 30, 2012; $46 – $255 www.radiocitychristmas.com 866-858-0007.

13th Annual Winter’s Eve at Lincoln Square

Sidewalks come alive with street performances by musicians, jugglers, stilt walkers and more. The celebration features free entertainment, food tastings, in-store activities and shopping and begins with a neighborhood tree lighting ceremony at Dante Park – Broadway and 63^rd Street. Festivities continue along Broadway from Time Warner Center to 68^th Street. November 26, 2012 at 5:00pm. www.winterseve.org 212-581-3774

The Nutcracker

Angels, soldiers, and sugarplum fairies prance across the Lincoln Center stage in a show that delights children and adults alike. New York State Theater, Columbus Avenue & 63rd Street, Lincoln Center, New York, NY 10023; November 23 – December 30, 2012. For tickets: www.nycballet.com/nutcracker/nutcracker.html

Handel’s Messiah

New York Philharmonic – The perennial favorite that always sells out, this incredibly rich oratorio features an elaborate mix of chorus, soloists, and orchestra that must be heard live. The New York Philharmonic delights with the city’s most popular Messiah performance. Don’t forget the custom of standing for the “Hallelujah” chorus, as King George II reportedly did at the London premiere. There are five opportunities to watch at Avery Fisher Hall: Dec 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 2012; Tickets $33 – $107. Avery Fisher Hall, 10 Lincoln Center Plaza, 212-875-5656 www.nyphil.org/ConcertsTickets

Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas!

The Musical at The Theater at Madison Square Garden – Discover the joy of Dr. Seuss’ quintessential holiday tale as it comes to life on the stage. Hit songs like “You’re a Mean One, Mr. Grinch” and “Welcome Christmas” set the tone for this heartwarming seasonal classic as the Grinch discovers there’s more to Christmas than he bargained for. December 13–30, 2012; Tickets $40-$149. The Theater at Madison Square Garden, 4 Pennsylvania Plaza (Seventh Ave) between 31st and 33rd, 
Manhattan, NY, 212-465-6741 www.theateratmsg.com/events/2012

Holiday Shops and Activities in NYC

The Holiday Shops at Bryant Park – Open daily, the over 100 boutique-style shops and specialty food stores from around the world offer exquisite and distinctive apparel, jewelry, decorative goods, imported and local food, and much more. Now – December 28, 2012. For a complete list of vendors, an insider’s guide to The Holiday Shops and more, please visit www.theholidayshopsatbryantpark.com or call 212-661-6640.

Holiday Shopping in Union Square – One of Manhattan’s most popular Holiday Markets, The 19th Annual Holiday Market in Union Square offers shoppers a wide variety of items which include handcrafted jewelry, fine art, clothes, handmade ornaments and toys. The market will be open from Now through December 24, 2012 from 11am to 8pm daily. www.urbanspacenyc.com/union-square

Grand Central Holiday Fair - Stop by Grand Central Terminal for a warm and festive holiday shopping spree. The annually held Holiday Fair offers fun and original gift ideas and a merry atmosphere. Now through December 24th, 2012 at Grand Central Terminal – 87 E. 42nd St. at Park Avenue. Hours are 10am-8pm Monday-Saturday and 10am-7pm Sunday. Closed on Christmas Eve.

9th Annual Holiday Market at Columbus Circle - Open November 28 to December 24, 2012, 59^th Street and 8^th Avenue. 10am to 8pm Monday – Saturday and 10am to 7pm on Sunday.
www.urbanspacenyc.com/columbus-circle-holiday-market

The Holiday Gift Shops at St. Bartholomew’s – 2012 marks the 8^th year for the Holiday Gift Shops at St. Bart’s. Open Now through December 24, 2012 from 8am to 8pm daily. On Park Avenue at 50^th street.

Holiday Window Displays

Lord & Taylor Holiday Window Displays (424 Fifth Avenue at 38th Street)
Bergdorf Goodman Holiday Window Displays (Fifth Avenue and 57th Street)
Saks Fifth Avenue Holiday Window Displays (611 Fifth Avenue between 49^th and 50^th Street)
Barneys New York Christmas Window Displays (660 Madison Avenue at 61st Street)
Bloomingdale’s Christmas Window Displays (Lexington Avenue between 59th Street and 60th Street)
Macy’s Christmas Window Displays (Herald Square, between 34th and 35th on Broadway)

Most department stores run their holiday displays from mid-November to mid-January.

Not Just For Kids

The Museum of the City of New York 2012 Children’s Holiday Party - Arts, crafts, magic shows, a buffet supper and meeting with Santa Claus is enough to get any child in the holiday spirit. Museum of the City of New York at 1220 Fifth Avenue; Monday, December 10, from 3-6pm; visit https://boxoffice.mcny.org/public/ 212-534-1672

Eleventh Annual Grand Central Holiday Train Show – The New York Transit Museum Gallery at Grand Central Terminal is returning with its 11th annual Holiday Train Show, which features a full train track with a fully functioning train and miniature New York City background. The vintage trains made by Lionel, American Flyer and Louis Marx & Company, which date as far back as the 1920s, will also be on display. Now through February 10, 2013 at New York Transit Museum Gallery Annex; Grand Central Terminal, 42nd St. between Vanderbilt and Lexington Avenues www.mta.info/mta/museum/whatsnew.htm

New York Botanical Garden Holiday Train Show

Now through January 13, 2013 – The New York Botanical Garden- Bronx River Parkway at Fordham Road. The New York Botanical Garden’s Holiday Train Show is a beautiful scene of The Big Apple built entirely out of plants and natural material like seeds, bark and leaves. A few of the included landmarks are the Brooklyn Bridge and The Statue of Liberty constructed by Paul Busse. New this year is the replica of Macy’s flagship location (“The Miracle on 34th Street”) that greets you as you enter the Haupt Conservatory. The miniature trains are also incredibly impressive works of art to view and run the familiar New York City Landscape. www.nybg.org/hts

The Grinch’s Holiday Workshop at the Children’s Museum of Manahattan – Step into The Grinch’s Holiday Workshop and walk right into the pages of Dr. Seuss’s classic holiday tale, which comes to life in the Children’s Museum of Manhattan’s new exhibit. Kids can create art projects inspired by Seuss’ iconic style and story, view scenes from the book covering gallery walls, participate in a scavenger hunt, play in a real-life sleigh and learn how to give back to those in need. Join Cindy-Lou Who, the lovable dog Max and the “Mean One” himself, the Grinch, for a new interactive experience, inspired by Dr. Seuss’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas! On view now through Sunday, January 6, 2013 at the Children’s Museum of Manhattan, 212 West 83rd Street between Broadway and Amsterdam Avenue. All activities are free with admission, $11 www.TheGrinchWorkshop.com

Hotels, Museums, Trees and Lights

Madeline’s Tea at the Carlyle- Stop by to enjoy Madeline’s Tea at The Carlyle’s famous Bemelmans Bar. Madeline’s Tea is a delightfully playful afternoon for children and parents alike. Guests can listen and sing along to tunes from the Madeline Song Book with Tina de Varon while dining on Madeline’s Children’s Buffet, afternoon tea, or an a la carte menu for adults. Every Saturday from Now through December 22, 2012 with seatings at 10am and 12:45pm. Don’t forget to check out the gingerbread house on display in The Gallery. It’s an endless source of temptation for both young and the young at heart. Located at 35 East 76^th Street. www.thecarlyle.com 212-744-1600

Victorian Holiday Lighting (At the Charles A. Dana Discovery Center – Inside the Park on 110^th St between 5^th and Lenox Aves) - Sunday, December 4, 2012 from 4:30pm to 5:30pm. Celebrate the season in Manhattan’s Victorian winter wonderland at the Central Park Conservancy’s 16^th Annual Holiday Lighting. Enjoy hot cocoa, live carolers, cookie decorating, crafts and an opportunity to take photographs with Father Christmas. FREE. No advance registration. All ages welcome. For more information, call 212-860-1370. http://support.centralparknyc.org/site/

Origami Christmas Tree at the American Museum of Natural History – For over thirty years the museum has celebrated the holiday season with its origami tree. This year, the museum draws inspiration from its own items for the 500 folded-paper works, constructed by volunteers beginning in July. See which pieces made their way onto the 13-foot tree. Tree viewing began on November 19, 2012 and tree will remain up until January 6, 2013. Central Park West at 79^th Street. 212-875-5456 www.amnh.org

Christmas Tree at The Metropolitan Museum of Art - Now through January 6, 2013. The Museum will display its Christmas Tree and Neapolitan Baroque Creche. The twenty foot spruce will be adorned with 18^th century Neapolitan angels and Cherubs flanking the nativity scene in the Museum’s Medieval Sculpture Hall. Lighting ceremonies are held Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays at 3:30pm and 4:30pm, and Fridays and Saturdays at 4:30pm, 5:30pm, and 6:30pm. 1000 5^th Ave at 82^nd Street. www.metmuseum.org 212-535-7710

Park Avenue Tree Lighting Ceremony – December 2, 2012 6:30-7:30pm at The Brick Presbyterian Church located at 91^st Street and Park Ave. Every year since 1945 the firs that line Park Avenue have been lit to remember and honor those who have lost their lives in our nation’s wars.

Tree Lighting Celebration at Citi Pond inside Bryant Park- Tuesday, November 27, 2012 at 6pm. www.bryantpark.org

Lighting of the World’s Largest Hanukkah Menorah- This 32 foot tall, two ton candelabra will be lit at the Grand Army Plaza at Fifth Avenue and 59^th Street. The nightly lighting ceremonies will be accompanied by folk dancing and holiday jelly donuts. The festivities take place December 8 – December 16, 2012. Every evening at 5:30pm during the holiday a candle will be lit. For the Sabbath, the lighting will be at 3:30pm on Friday and 8:30pm on Saturday.

The 36th Annual Three Kings Day Parade at El Museo del Barrio - On Wednesday, January 6, 2013 El Museo will once again celebrate its time-honored tradition of the Three Kings Day Parade, its renowned procession through the streets of el barrio with lively music, colorful costumes, floats and thousands of participants. Admission is free. For more information, please visit . www.elmuseo.org

Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting - November 28, 2012 from 7pm-9pm. The Norway Spruce will be illuminated by 30,000 environmentally friendly LED lights on five miles of wire! It will remain on view until 11pm on January 7, 2013. www.rockefellercenter.com

Chorus Tree at South Street Seaport – The South Street Seaport kicked off the holiday season with a traditional tree lighting ceremony where an over 50 foot Norway Spruce was lit up the day after Thanksgiving. Now, the bright lights of New York City are drowned out by the beautiful lights of the holiday at the South Street Seaport’s Historic Cobblestone Area – South Street and Fulton. The St. Cecilia Chorus Carolers perform on Fridays at 6pm and 7pm and on Saturdays and Sundays at 3pm and 4 pm through Christmas, providing a festive break from the holiday madness. www.southstreetseaport.com

Carl Schurz Park Tree Lighting – On Sunday, December 2 from 5-6pm enjoy gratis hot chocolate, cookies and candies, as critically the acclaimed choir Cantori New York and the Orbal Brass Quartet serenade you.
Carl Schurz Park, East End Ave at 86th Street; 212-459 4455 http://www.carlschurzparknyc.org/events.html

Santa

Macy’s Santaland and Puppet Theatre- Visit the real Santa Claus at Macy’s Santaland located on the 8^th floor of Macy’s Herald Square. Open daily from 9am to 9pm, from Friday, November 23 through Monday, December 24, 2012. Admission is free.

ABC Carpet & Home – 888 Broadway between 18th and 19th Streets. Visiting the very authentic Old Saint Nick at this fancy home goods store is a lavish, Victorian affair with a setting draped in crushed velvet and filled with sumptuous housewares. Weekends through Sunday, December 23; Saturdays 10am-3pm and Sundays 11am-3pm. Admission is free and it is one of the best places to see beautiful Father Christmas with little or no wait.

Santa Pub Crawl -For the over-21 crowd, you can follow Santa and his helpers this holiday season to local bars for the Santa Pub Crawl. The 2012 Santa Pub Crawl New York City will take place on Saturday, December 15th. For more information, visit http://santacon.info/New_York-NY/?all

Ice Skating in New York

The Ice Rink at Rockefeller Center – www.therinkatrockcenter.com 212-332-7654

Citi Pond at Bryant Park – Citi Pond is the centerpiece of Bryant Park’s winter season. The 170’ x 100’ rink features free admission skating in addition to high quality rentals. Opened October 26, 2012 and remains open through March 3, 2013. Sunday through Thursday, 8am – 10pm and Friday and Saturdays from 8am –midnight. www.citipondatbryantpark.com

Trump Wollman Rink – Located in Central Park, the rink is near the east side of the Park, just steps from the Central Park Zoo and The Plaza Hotel. It offers ice hockey, a skating school and party facilities. For more information including rink hours call 212-439-6900 or visit www.wollmanskatingrink.com.

Best Places for Hot Chocolate

Dylan’s Candy Bar – Visit the upper level of this Willy Wonka like candy store for a mug of hot chocolate topped with either cookies, birthday cake or, of course, candy. One size $7.00. Located at 1011 Third Ave. www.dylanscandystore.com

Sant Ambroeus – 1000 Madison Avenue (between 77^th and 78^th St.) 212-570-2211 www.santambroeus.com Their hot chocolate is beyond!

Lexington Candy Shop – Sit at the counter and have an old New York experience as you and your children will enjoy the classic Nestle’s cocoa. One size: $1.50 or $2.95 made with milk. 1226 Lexington Avenue at 83^rd Street. www.lexingtoncandyshop.com

Petite Abeille – 134 W. Broadway, 212-791-1360, TriBeCa, Manhattan. Petite Abeille gets its name from a Belgian children’s book—the moniker translates as “little bee.” This hot chocolate is made from 70% Callebaut chocolate, which is shaved, melted down and mixed with whole milk. Divine! www.petiteabeille.com

MarieBelle New York – 484 Broome St., 212-925-6999, SoHo, Manhattan. MarieBelle is known for intricately designed, handcrafted chocolates that look like miniature works of art. The staff at the confectionery’s Cacao Bar and Tea Salon puts the same care into its dark, rich, pudding-thick Aztec hot chocolate, which comes in European (made with water) and American (made with milk) varieties. It’s also available in a spicy version. www.mariebelle.com

The City Bakery –3 W. 18th St., 212-366-1414, Union Square, Manhattan. This Union Square mainstay doles out impossibly tasty liquid cocoa, higlighted in countless imaginative iterations at the bakery’s own Hot Chocolate Festival every February. The 2012 flavors include ginger, banana peel and beer. www.thecitybakery.com

New York Road Runners Emerald Nuts Midnight Run

After all that hot chocolate indulgence, kick off your New Year’s resolution with the annual Emerald Nuts Midnight Run on December 31, 2012 at 11:45pm. The 4 mile run starts with a spectacular fireworks display and includes dancing and a costume parade and contest. Rumour has it champagne is offered instead of water at one refreshment stop along the race route. New Year’s festivities will be held at the Central Park Bandshell, just south of the 72nd Street Transverse in Central Park, New York. Registration will close at 11:45pm on Wednesday, December 26. Registration fee for non-NYRR members is $60. http://www.nyrr.org/races-and-events/emerald-nuts-midnight-run

Holiday Bus Tours

Year after year New York is the top destination for Holiday travels. Come get a taste of why Christmas in New York makes the season bright for so many. See the lights, the music, everything that makes New York spectacular during the holidays! On this guided bus tour through New York you will see the city’s famous holiday lights! Come see Rockefeller Center’s Holiday splendor. Rockefeller Center’s lighted Christmas tree and its outdoor skating rink are just some of the many sites you’ll enjoy on this unforgettable tour of New York City and its Holiday lights. The tour runs approximately 2.5 hours daily at 6pm, 6:30pm, or 7pm, November 28, 2012 – December 30, 2012. Tickets range from Free for children under the age of 5, $33.95 for children between the ages of 5-11 and $48.95 for Adults. There is a $5 savings for tours booked online. Reserve online or call toll free at 888-880-9108. http://www.nytours.us/?event=offer.detail&offerId=5170

Christmas Kitsch, German pilsners and Eggnog

Once a year in Gramercy, Rolf’s, the landmark German/French Bavarian restaurant transforms into the North Pole with an over-the-top holiday display. Let your holiday spirit take over and go see over 80,000 Christmas lights strung up, along with shiny stalactites of ornamental balls hang from the ceiling, and all accented by gnarly tree branches, evergreens and faux icicles. This is a must see for those who appreciate Christmas kitsch and German sausages. Order the eggnog and settle in to the snug, pewlike booths while listening to a continuous loop of Christmas anthems. Rolf’s French Bavarian Restaurant, 281 Third Ave. (at 22nd St.)
212-477-4750 http://www.rolfsnyc.com

Christine Miller Martin, Senior Managing Director – 212-439-5194 / cmartin@warburgrealty.com

Lisa Larson, Licensed Salesperson – 212-439-5188 / llarson@warburgrealty.com

Having spent a few days in London earlier this week, I was reminded of that peculiarity of the British system of real estate ownership: the leasehold.  When I first traveled to England 45 years ago, most properties were sold as leaseholds; now, little by little, one tends to see more freehold sales. The concept behind the leasehold is that the landlord sells a lengthy lease, essentially getting the rent up front. The vast majority of properties have thus remained in the hands of a relatively few owners. Most leases are for 99 years, diminishing gradually in value as their term wears on, so a lease of 90 years is, of course, worth far more than a lease of 20 years. And when my daughter recently bought her flat, she had the interesting experience of having it offered either way: she could pay x dollars for the leasehold or, for another 10 or 15,000 pounds, she could own the freehold. Naturally, being a New York girl, she chose the latter!

These observations come to me as I have been thinking much in recent weeks about the endangered mortgage deduction and its peculiar place in American culture. Such mortgage benefits exist in only two other countries of which I am aware (the Netherlands and Switzerland) , and almost all the nations in the developed world pay higher taxes, which would render such a deduction that much more valuable. Why is it that our government has so chosen to incentivize home ownership, while in countries like the U.K. it was accepted that most people, even those who bought leaseholds for millions of pounds, would not actually own their homes?

To me it feels very much like a part of the democratic fantasy which animates our American spirit. In the European countries, there were historically those who owned land, more often than not hereditarily, and those who worked either on the land or for the owners. In indigenous cultures generally the land was unowned, beyond owning, a gift to the people from the gods. But Americans have from the first embraced the concept of the rugged individual, who carved his own life out of the (often harsh) environment and was beholden to no one. Of course such a person would want to own his property, whether he traveled West to claim it or bought it from another. Thus it was that when the general interest deduction introduced early in the last century was repealed in 1986, home mortgage interest remained deductible.

The recession of 2009 has put many homeowners underwater, and many more have lost most if not all of the equity in their homes. But throughout the country the desire to own is still powerful. It is a central part of today’s American dream. And the mortgage deduction, although often not worth SO much in today’s ultra-low interest rate environment, is a cornerstone of our government’s support of that dream. Do we need it? I don’t know. But Americans certainly WANT it and see it as a concrete way in which the government helps them build wealth and protect their families.  Now time will tell how the government prioritizes this slice of the dream as our new, more austere budget priorities necessitate a re-thinking of the entitlements we have all come to take for granted.